What’s your closing price for $USDJPY this week?

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荒波の中、米ドル安 昨日の金融市場は、日本銀行の利上げと9月の米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）利下げ観測が交錯し、ジェットコースターのような展開となりました。ドル円は一時2.0%近く急落しました。 FRBは政策金利を据え置きましたが、パウエル議長は9月の利下げを示唆。「委員会は、政策金利を引き下げることが適切となる時期に近づいているとの認識で一致している」と述べました。 この発言を受け、米株式市場は急騰。S&P500は1.6%、ナスダックは2.6%上昇し、2月以来の日中上昇率を記録しました。

米債利回りは急低下し、ドル指数も0.4%下落、2週間ぶりの安値をつけました。 オーストラリアでは、予想を下回るトリム平均CPIを受け、債券市場が大きく反応。2年債利回りは1年以上ぶりの大幅下落となり、来週の利上げ観測は後退しました（Bloomberg）。 激動の一日の終わりに、豪ドル/米ドルは0.1%、NZドル/米ドルは0.9%上昇しました。 日銀の利上げを受け、円は主要通貨に対して全面高となりました。 アジア市場ではドル安が顕著で、ドル/人民元は0.4%、ドル/シンガポールドルは0.5%下落しました。

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Yesterday's financial markets were volatile due to the Bank of Japan's rate hike and expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The US dollar fell significantly against the Japanese yen.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady overnight, but Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a rate cut was likely in September. This news led to a surge in US shares, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting their best one-day gains since February. US bond yields fell, and the US dollar weakened against other currencies.

In Australia, a lower-than-expected inflation reading caused a significant reaction in local bond markets, eliminating any chance of a rate hike next week. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar both rose against the US dollar.

The Japanese yen strengthened against all major currencies following the Bank of Japan's rate hike. The US dollar also weakened against Asian currencies, with notable declines against the Chinese yuan and Singapore dollar.

Further volatility is expected, with the Bank of England expected to cut interest rates for the first time this cycle. Despite mixed economic data, a rate cut is seen as likely due to the extended period of restrictive rates and softer data. The British pound has been resilient in 2024, and even a rate cut may not lead to sustained weakness.

The Indonesian rupiah remains under pressure, and a potentially weaker inflation reading is unlikely to help. Inflation is expected to decline slightly due to lower food prices but remains persistent in other sectors. The outlook for the rupiah remains somewhat negative, with the USD/IDR exchange rate nearing all-time highs.

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