A nearly tax-free year in early retirement feels like winning. Sometimes it is. Sometimes it is a bill with a longer fuse—because a large Traditional IRA does not stay invisible forever.

Below: the CRDO chart for this week’s 5-Year Horizon, then the full withdrawal-order playbook.

Credo Technology ($CRDO ( ▲ 0.1% )) builds high-speed connectivity for AI and data-center infrastructure (AECs, optics, SerDes/retimers). When AI clusters need more bandwidth, Credo sits in the plumbing—not the chatbot.

Since IPO (Jan 27, 2022): priced at $10, first close near $11.65. By early September 2026, shares sat around the mid-$160s to low-$170s (Sep 4 close ~$170.57). From that first close, the move is roughly +1,300%+ over about four and a half years—an extreme stretch, not a quiet compounder.

Then the air pocket: the 52-week high was $308.67 (June 22, 2026). Into the ~$170 area, that is about a 45% drawdown. After Q1 FY27 (around Sep 1)—strong revenue, then a sharp selloff on margins, opex, concentration, and a back-loaded guide—the chart reminded everyone that spectacular winners can still fall hard.

Hypothetical $500/month habit: 60 months = $30,000 invested. If contributions had compounded at a pace similar to CRDO’s blistering post-IPO average (~70%+ annualized for illustration), the ending balance lands around $145,000–$162,000 (~$152k on a clean 72% path). That is a math what-if—not a forecast, and not a buy recommendation.

Dollar-cost averaging helps in charts like this: more shares on the way down, fewer on the way up, without needing the exact bottom under a $308 high.

Past pace rarely continues. Size any interest for a drawdown like the one from $308. Decide the monthly amount—and the pain you can tolerate—before the entry day.

The classic advice sounds responsible: spend the taxable brokerage first, leave the Traditional IRA/401(k) alone, save the Roth for last.

For modest balances, that can be fine. For households with large pre-tax accounts (think high six figures and up), plus brokerage and maybe Roth, the real question is not “which account first?” It is:

When do I recognize income—and which other tax rules does that income trigger?

Keeping Traditional balances untouched through the early retirement gap can feel optimal. Then RMDs begin—age 73 for many today, rising to 75 for those who reach 74 after 2032—and the IRS formula, not your preference, sets a minimum.

That is when the three-wave tax hit shows up:

Minimizing this year’s tax bill is not the same as minimizing lifetime tax friction.

In the window after work stops—and often before RMDs (and sometimes before Social Security)—many households have unusually low taxable income. Instead of celebrating $0, deliberately fill cheaper brackets with taxable Traditional withdrawals or partial Roth conversions. You choose when to pay, rather than handing the calendar to RMDs.

Step 1 — Find your headroom. Start with income you cannot easily avoid (SS, pension, interest, dividends). Measure room left before the next bracket or cliff that matters. For 2026, MFJ standard deduction is about $32,200; the 12% bracket reaches about $100,800 of taxable income. That is a planning range—not a mandate to fill it.

Step 2 — Fill cheap brackets on purpose. Use Traditional withdrawals or Roth conversions to occupy low rates now if that likely beats higher forced rates later. Watch the seesaw: filling ordinary income can push long-term capital gains out of the 0% band (2026 MFJ 0% LTCG top sits near ~$99k of taxable income)—you often cannot maximize both at once.

Step 3 — Fund the rest without jumping cliffs. Cover remaining spending from brokerage and/or Roth when that avoids unnecessary bracket, SS, or IRMAA spikes.

Honest caveat: For some lower-income retirees, extra IRA income can worsen the Social Security “tax torpedo.” Classic taxable-first can still win in those cases. This playbook is aimed at larger pre-tax balances—not everyone.

Bottom line: Stop asking only which account to empty first. Ask how to manage taxable income across the whole retirement—before RMDs, IRMAA, and stacked brackets manage it for you.

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