AMD’s explosive run has finally forced Wall Street to pay attention, but not everything driving the surge is obvious at first glance. The stock has doubled this year and now trades at valuations that assume flawless execution for years to come. While the OpenAI partnership is real, its financial impact won’t show up until 2026—and the market is already pricing in success. Meanwhile, AMD’s most important growth drivers today still come from client, embedded, and data center performance. As the company heads into earnings, expectation risk is high, and patience may matter more than momentum. Understanding the difference between hype and runway is key.

Let’s embark on this transformative journey together and position your portfolio for success in this evolving market landscape!

Be sure to read through to the end to catch all the valuable insights this newsletter delivers to your inbox today.

Five years ago, Kolibri Global Energy Inc. $KGEI ( ▼ 2.98% ) shares traded at about $0.30 each. Today, November 3, 2025, it's at $4.37—a strong 1,357% rise that rewards those who saw the potential early. While the one-year chart shows some ups and downs from January to September 2025, ending with a solid 28.53% gain, the longer view highlights steady progress in the energy sector. That 52-week high of $9.84 stands out as a reminder of the peaks it can hit.

Keeping it straightforward, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 70.87%. This is the average yearly boost that added up over time—calculated by taking the total growth factor, raising it to the 1/5 power, and subtracting 1. It boils down to more than doubling your investment each year, on average.

Bring in dollar-cost averaging (DCA): You put $500 in each month for 5 years, for a total of $30,000. This way, you scoop up more shares during softer spots and ease in on climbs. Projecting at the same pace, with a monthly growth rate of about 4.57% from the current $4.37, your position builds steadily. After 60 months, it could be worth $155,354. That's a gain of $125,354—a 418% return on your outlay. The initial buys get the full compounding lift, and even later ones benefit from the trend. History offers clues, not certainties, especially with no P/E ratio listed and energy markets that can shift.

But with that 52-week high of $9.84 in the mix, KGEI has room to move. If DCA suits your steady approach, this could turn monthly savings into a worthwhile haul by 2030. What's holding you back?

There are moments in the market when a company moves from being ignored to being impossible to ignore. $AMD ( ▲ 1.38% ) has entered that phase. Months ago, at $80, $90, even just above $100, hardly anyone cared. The business was steady, the innovation pipeline intact, and yet sentiment was lukewarm. Now, with shares around $250 and the company valued at $410 billion, suddenly the crowd is paying attention.

This shift always reveals something important: excitement arrives late, and sometimes it arrives loud. But those who navigate these moments effectively focus less on excitement and more on what has fundamentally changed.

And in AMD’s case, something has shifted—just not in the simplistic way the stock price suggests.

AMD’s year-to-date surge of 110% echoes a broader pattern seen in semiconductor names, with Intel also doubling. But the valuation has stretched: the company trades around 151× forward earnings, and even the longer-term 2027 expectations place it at roughly 50× forward. Expensive—yes. But valuations rarely exist in a vacuum; they reflect assumptions about the future. Right now, those assumptions revolve around AI hardware demand, data center expansion, and massive cloud partnerships.

The market believes AMD’s trajectory has changed. The real question is how much.

Earnings expectations heading into November 4 include:

But focusing solely on the headline numbers misses the deeper forces shaping AMD’s next leg of growth.

The much-discussed OpenAI agreement—one that could potentially award OpenAI up to 10% ownership of AMD if long-term milestones are reached—represents the strategic alignment AMD needed. The final milestone requires AMD to reach $600 per share, equivalent to roughly $1 trillion in market cap. That target is far away, but the deal's structure signals something critical: OpenAI sees value in diversified supply and is willing to tie its upside to AMD’s execution.

Still, investors must recognize a crucial detail:

The MI450 family—the hardware at the center of this partnership—does not meaningfully impact 2024 earnings. Nor 2025. Its weight shows up in 2026 and beyond.

This means chasing the stock into earnings based solely on AI enthusiasm rarely pays off. The catalyst exists, but its timeline stretches.

The upcoming report matters less for reporting the past and more for expanding visibility into the next three years. Key areas to listen for include:

Analysts currently estimate AMD’s AI revenue in wide ranges—initial projections of $10–12 billion were cut to ~$8.4–8.5 billion, and some estimates drift even lower. Guidance from AMD is needed to anchor expectations.

This is why caution into earnings is rational. The stock has already priced in “good news.” The upside from here requires news that exceeds already elevated expectations.

AI and data centers dominate the conversation, but AMD’s balance of revenue still depends on segments that the market tends to overlook.

Last quarter, the client segment grew 67.5%, generating $2.5 billion in revenue—almost as large as the data center division during a critical phase of recovery. Strong performance in commercial PCs and continued momentum in premium consumer systems helped push this higher.

Client may not be flashy, but it remains foundational for gross margin stability. Ignoring it underestimates AMD’s resilience.

Gaming revenue is not toweringly large, but the margins are attractive. The previous quarter suffered from an unfavorable mix, yet the segment's underlying profitability remains compelling. As cyclicality fades and demand normalizes, gaming’s contribution becomes easier to appreciate.

Embedded has faced headwinds, particularly tied to industrial and communications segments. However, signs of stabilization suggest that those headwinds could soon flip into tailwinds. This business carries some of AMD’s highest margins, and any resurgence meaningfully lifts overall profitability.

Data center revenue reached around $3.2 billion, previously peaking near $3.8 billion—and this is before any MI450 benefit.

Recent commentary from hyperscalers reinforces why the future is tilted in AMD’s favor: AMD’s architecture offers diversified supply, cost advantages, and compatibility pathways that major AI players actively seek. Oracle’s massive order confirms that the landscape is shifting.

Last quarter, margin commentary told a story that overshadowed the China revenue drag:

AMD’s long-term case hinges on this trend continuing.

Industry projections for 2026 estimate that:

These models were created before the OpenAI partnership announcement. Updated forecasts may tilt deeper in AMD’s direction, particularly if the MI450 family competes effectively on performance-per-dollar.

The question now is whether AMD can accelerate this shift faster than the market expects.

The fundamentals have improved. The partnerships strengthen the roadmap. The demand pipeline exists.

Yet the stock has climbed sharply in line with these expectations.

History shows that when sentiment swings too far ahead of fundamentals, short-term volatility becomes inevitable. A strong long-term story does not always translate into immediate upside after an earnings call. For a business with multiple moving pieces—AI accelerators not yet shipping, client strength rebounding, gaming normalizing, embedded resetting—the best entries often appear after earnings, not before.

Investors often ask whether AMD could be the next trillion-dollar company. The honest framing:

AMD is positioned for one of the most meaningful transitions in its history. The mix of accelerating data center demand, powerful ecosystem partnerships, a competitive AI accelerator roadmap, strong client momentum, and recovering legacy segments creates a foundation capable of supporting long-term compounding.

But for now, expectations must stay grounded. The OpenAI deal is transformative in the long term, not immediately. The MI450 is a 2026 story, not a Q4 earnings catalyst. The other segments—client, gaming, embedded—matter more than investors admit.

For the investor trying to navigate this moment amid a busy life, the takeaway is simple:

AMD’s story is powerful, but timing matters. The company’s future looks stronger than ever, yet patience remains one of the most valuable tools available.

Ready to Revolutionize Your Wealth?

Here's what's waiting for you:

With the world becoming increasingly digital, this question will be on the minds of millions of people looking for new income streams in 2025.

The answer is—Absolutely!

Thank you for taking the time to read today’s email! Your support is what allows me to send out this newsletter for free every day. 

 What do you think of the new format? Please provide your feedback in the poll below, and if you find the newsletter valuable, feel free to share it with other investors!

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.